111 The New Caledonian archipelago, located in the South West Pacific, supports several nesting aggregations of the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) South Pacific subpopulation (Limpus and Casale 2015; Wallace et al. 2023). This subpopulation, which has suffered a loss of over 80% of nesting females over the past three generations, has been classified as ‘Critically Endangered’ on the IUCN Red List in 2015 (Limpus and Casale 2015). The largest nesting concentration in the archipelago is located in the ‘Grand Lagon Sud’ area (GLS), at the southern end of the main island, aggregating 40-45% of all nesting activities reported for this species in New Caledonia (Bourgogne et al. 2024c). The area is characterized by a singular topography, as it is composed of a large number of remote coral-islets, scattered over an extensive lagoon area. Preliminary surveys conducted from November 2016 to February 2017 showed that most of these islets had nesting activities over that season (Oremus and Mattei 2017). However, information about the overall dynamics of nesting activity distribution at the GLS scale has remained scarce until now (Oremus and Mattei 2017; Bourgogne and Oremus 2020; Supplementary Information in Bourgogne et al. 2024c). This limited understanding acts as a detrimental hindrance to the identification of the most critical nesting islets and/or habitats to the loggerhead turtle nesting population within the GLS. This information would not only provide policymakers with further insight into the nesting hotspots that may warrant human access restriction measures (Siqueira-Silva et al. 2020), but also with an evaluation indicator of its management measures in force. Ultimately, this integrated and prioritized approach would also ensure a well-balanced management trade off, guaranteeing maximized conservation benefits while maintaining a satisfying level of social and economic acceptability over the considered management strategies. Here, we examine the temporal and spatial distribution of nesting activities in the GLS area during six nesting seasons in order to detect patterns susceptible to provide useful insights in terms of management strategy. To do so, we relied on a specially designed monitoring protocol and the use of phenology models to predict the total number of nests per islet and per season (Girondot 2010, 2017; Bourgogne et al. 2024c). We also aim to assess the influence of environmental and anthropological variables on nesting site selection within the GLS, both at the inter-islet and intra-islet scales, to identify and quantify putative threats or to evaluate the impact of management measures in force. 3. Material & Methods 3.1 Study area This study was conducted over the GLS of New Caledonia (S22°00, E167°00; Figure 22-A), a 314.500 ha marine protected provincial park at the southern end of the mainland’s lagoon listed
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