63 Tableau 4. Model selection for the phenology of the number of nesting activities in the ‘GLS’ rookery during the 2017-2018 to 2022-2023 period. If the Peak (P) and LengthB/LengthE (LBLE) are indicated as ‘common’, then this indicates that a single set of values is used for the ‘GLS’ rookery, otherwise a different set of values is used for each season, indicated as ‘seasonal’. The selected model is indicated in bold. AICc: Akaike Information Criterion corrected for small sample sizes. ΔAICc is the difference in AICc from the best-performing model. Peak & LBLE model AICc ΔAICc Akaike weight Peak common + LBLE common 1640.46 5.95 0.05 Peak seasonal + LBLE common 1634.51 0.00 0.95 Peak common + LBLE seasonal 1646.28 11.77 0.00 Peak seasonal + LBLE seasonal 1649.32 14.80 0.00 The fitted dates for the nesting seasonality in the ‘GLS’ rookery over the study period are shown in Tableau 5. The season starts in late October, and stretches for over 4 months into the austral summer. The peak of the activity occurs in late December/early January. Tableau 5. Fitted nesting phenological parameters in the ‘GLS’ rookery and median seasonal number of nests with the 95% Credible Interval (CI). Fit for the selected nesting phenology model: date of the Beginning, Peak, End and Length of the loggerhead turtle nesting season. Nesting season 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Phenology parameters Beginning 02 Nov. 04 Nov. 31 Oct. 30 Oct. 27 Oct. 17 Oct. Peak 30 Dec. 01 Jan. 28 Dec. 27 Dec. 24 Dec. 14 Dec. End 27 Mar. 29 Mar. 24 Mar. 24 Mar. 21 Mar. 11 Mar. Length (days) 145 145 145 145 145 145 Seasonal number of nests Lower 95% CI 377 402 312 232 347 299 median 532 531 455 303 437 362 Upper 95% CI 715 709 661 405 553 450 4.2 Assessment of the overall seasonal number of loggerhead turtle nests on the ‘GLS’ rookery For each prospected islets, time series of nest counts has been fitted using the phenological parameters LengthB, LengthE and Peak of the corresponding nesting season as fixed
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