64 parameters, with only the Max parameter being specific to each islet time series (Girondot 2017; Fretey et al. 2023). We obtained the posterior predictive mean number of nests during the season, then we estimated the number of nesting activities for the islets not monitored during a season. Ultimately, an overall estimate of the nesting intensity at the rookery-scale was generated, as well as its distribution based on 50,000 iterations using a Markov chain built with Monte Carlo sampling (Tableau 5). The overall seasonal number of nests in the ‘GLS’ rookery ranged from 303 (95% CI=232-405) during the 2020-2021 season to 532 (95% CI=377-715) during the 2017-2018 season, with a mean seasonal intensity of 437 nests (95% CI=328-582) over the 2017-2018 to 2022-2023 period. Seasonal number of nests and 95% CI for each islet are available in Table 1 SI Appendix. 5. Discussion We have estimated the overall nesting activity of loggerhead turtles in the remote, scattered and hard-to-reach ‘GLS’ rookery for the first time. Based on an adapted monitoring protocol, we were able to highlight an important nesting intensity, ranging annually from 232 to 402 nests for the lowest limit of the 95% CI (Tableau 5). This result is quite exceptional considering both the precarious conservation status of the South Pacific subpopulation and available territorial knowledge prior to this study (Limpus and Casale 2015; Barbier et al. 2023). The mean number of nests 437 (95% CI=328-582) surpasses that of the estimated number of loggerhead turtle nesting activities in New Caledonia. The assessment of nest detection dynamics over time on the islets of the ‘GLS’ rookery has allowed us to feed the models more accurately. The resulting nesting phenology parameters estimated are consistent with local reports in New Caledonia, with a season duration of 4.8 months, starting in late October/early November and with a peak date occurring in late December/early January (Barbier et al. 2023). Monitoring protocol replication potential and conservation implications. The management of marine turtle species, with ocean-wide distributions and philopatric behaviors, can be facilitated by better understanding their reproductive population trends (Metcalfe et al. 2015). The lack of standardized data series in New Caledonia has been highlighted by the IUCN in 2015 as a source of uncertainty regarding the assessment of the South Pacific subpopulation (Limpus and Casale 2015). A strong emphasis has thus been given to the need of developing robust estimates of nesting intensity on high potential sites, such as the ‘Grand Lagon Sud’ area. Comprehensive monitoring on this important zone to the loggerhead turtle has been hindered by the financial and technical difficulties to adequately survey the numerous and distant coral islets inventoried in the area. Therefore, we have
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